Critique
When LTV models overfit
Overfit LTV models feel precise. They replay last quarter’s quirks with high confidence and then stumble on the next release. A classic tell: the model needs a new parameter every time marketing changes a creative.
In LTV Forecasting for Apps, overfitting often hides inside segmented curves that were split until each cell looked smooth. If a segment cannot survive a leave-one-campaign-out check, it is decoration.
Critique habits
Write the three assumptions that, if false, collapse the forecast. Ask a colleague to attack only those three. If nobody can name them, the model is probably storytelling with math.