Field guide
Reading retention curves
A retention curve is a conversation, not a verdict. The first drop usually captures onboarding friction. The elbow that follows often marks who found a habit. The long plateau — when it exists — is where LTV Forecasting for Apps either gets boringly reliable or quietly wrong.
What to annotate
- Release markers and store feature placements.
- Pricing tests and promo codes with known end dates.
- Regional holidays if you ship in Thailand or nearby markets.
Smooth mathematical fits erase those annotations. Prefer a hand-drawn story over an elegant equation that cannot explain a festival bump. When the plateau shifts after a release, treat it as a new regime until proven otherwise.